摘要: |
应用性能、创新数量、创新级别和收益率四个尺度变量来评估技术系统的成熟度,进而作出技术预测。并以转杯纺纱机作为案例来说明应用TRIZ进行技术预测的过程。 |
关键词: TRIZ 技术预测 演变模式 S-曲线 |
DOI: |
分类号:F272.1 |
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(70271055)。 |
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Apply TRIZ to Technology Forecasting |
GONG Yi-ming DING Ming-fang
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Abstract: |
The paper applies four main descriptors to assess the life cycle stage of a technological system to make forecasts. The four main descriptors are performance,the number of inventions per time period,the level of innovation per time period and the profitab |
Key words: TRIZ,technology forecasting,patterns of evolution,S-cure |