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多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)在R&D投资预测中的应用 |
王五祥,张维,崔和瑞,刘冰
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[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]河北农业大学经贸学院,保定071001 [3]天津财经大学,天津300222 [4]华北电力大学经济管理系,保定071003 [5]保定建筑设计院,保定071001
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摘要: |
对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法——利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(multi—variable grey model).研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相互影响关系,对天津市相关数据资料进行实证分析与中长期预测,为政府相关部门制订科学的科技发展规划提供有益的指导作用. |
关键词: MGM(1,n)模型 灰色系统 研究与发展 预测 |
DOI: |
分类号:F224.5 |
基金项目:天津市科技发展环境与保障措施研究项目(043501211-2). |
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Application of Grey Multi-variable Model MGM(1,n) in the R&D Investment Forecast |
WANG Wu-xiang ZHANG Wei CUI He-rui LIU Bing
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1. School of Managernent, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 2. College of Economics and Trade, Agriculture University of Hebei, Baoding 071001, China; 3. Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222, China; 4. Department of Econo
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Abstract: |
Scientifically forecasting R&D devotion and it's intensity in the future is the important part of formulating S&T development programme.For quite long time,the countries throughout the world mainly adopt subjective judging method based on qualitative anal |
Key words: MGM(1,n) model,grey system,R&D,forecasting |